1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	332070	ONUS! Traianus	Current	31	9.09	5.52	3.67
			Estimated	200	8.11	5.76	2.97

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Have you ever dreamed of commanding a powerful army? Have you enjoyed a good historical novel about Ancient Rome and you would have liked to move to this period in the middle of battle? Would you like to be able to change History or revive exciting historical events? If you have answered affirmatively to any of these questions then this is your game. ONUS! Traianus is a historical battles wargame, similar to a miniatures game, where two sides confront each other in an Ancient battle. This game is focused on the armies of the great superpowers of the apogee of the Roman Empire, during the reign of the emperors Trajan and Hadrian, between the 1st and 2nd centuries AD. In this game, different action cards recreate varied kinds of orders and battle events, that allow every match to be unique and to any combat to be epic, unpredictable and exciting. ONUS! can be played anywhere but to get the best gaming experience we do recommend a game area as large as possible, i.e. 3.2 x 2.9 feet (100 x 90 cm). Units are represented by cards which have been scaled around a Centuria (also known as Century) or to a Maniple (also known as Manipulus), representing formations from 80 to 100 men for Infantry units, 20 cavalrymen for Cavalry units or 6 Elephants. Units have their own set of traits to represent permanent attributes of the unit, like Melee Combat, Range Attack, Defensive capacity, Morale and Life, and Movement capacity. This set of traits gets bonuses and penalties depending on the ongoing situation and combat engagements. Units also have their unique set of skills to represent specific abilities they can perform: from defensive formations to extremely effective techniques to attack enemies. Some of these skills need to be activated; meaning only one of them can be used in an engagement, while others are inherent to the units. Leadership is represented in the game by the figure of the General. A General’s token represent his HQ and its own escort. In addition to the leadership benefit, a General grants bonuses to nearby units, boosting the morale of the troops and providing additional benefits when they are engaged with the enemy in those bloody encounters. —description from the publisher

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/332070

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to ONUS! Traianus? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to ONUS! Traianus. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to ONUS! Traianus. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	332070	ONUS! Traianus	1.00	5.52	9.09	2.97	31
1	1993	4102	Europa Universalis	0.89	5.68	6.84	4.86	344
2	1981	4300	The Barbarians: Games of the Fall of Rome and the Mongol Invasion of Europe	0.89	5.52	6.06	2.17	86
3	2016	188825	Airfix Battles: The Introductory Wargame	0.88	5.57	7.36	3.00	98
4	1986	6226	Eastern Front Tank Leader	0.88	5.65	6.86	2.94	217
5	2012	69136	Bloody April, 1917: Air War Over Arras, France	0.88	5.67	7.36	4.10	213
6	2012	124838	Maurice: War in an Age of Gentlemen and Philosophers – 1690-1790	0.88	5.56	8.29	2.69	48
7	2020	257599	Invasions: Volume 1 – 350-650 AD	0.88	5.52	6.34	4.27	67
8	2020	285193	Brief Border Wars	0.88	5.57	7.45	2.80	70
9	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	0.88	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
10	2020	297702	Fury at Midway	0.87	5.54	7.22	2.50	50
11	1987	1716	Knights of the Air	0.87	5.54	6.08	3.48	232
12	2016	41849	1866: The Struggle for Supremacy in Germany	0.86	5.58	6.91	3.36	117
13	2006	17392	Here I Stand	0.86	7.10	7.90	4.18	3,699
14	1981	721	Oregon Trail	0.85	5.49	5.40	2.25	46
15	1987	6642	Western Front Tank Leader	0.85	5.63	6.81	3.10	203
16	2008	23418	Pursuit of Glory	0.85	6.01	7.92	3.91	510
17	1976	3083	Submarine	0.85	5.70	6.52	3.25	527
18	1979	4288	Panzer: A Tactical Game of Armored Combat on the Eastern Front, 1941-1945	0.85	5.62	7.25	3.75	134
19	1983	1608	Ambush!	0.85	6.56	7.48	3.25	2,264
20	1971	7026	Grunt: Tactical Combat in Vietnam, 1965	0.85	5.52	6.24	2.75	48
21	1993	3894	Brilliant Lances	0.85	5.50	5.69	3.00	54
22	1977	8233	Lords & Wizards	0.84	5.50	5.79	2.83	36
23	2019	209003	Commands & Colors: Medieval	0.84	5.99	8.28	2.53	418
24	2019	249590	Nevsky: Teutons and Rus in Collision 1240-1242	0.84	6.10	8.26	3.90	537
25	1989	5875	Last Battle: Twilight – 2000	0.84	5.51	6.09	2.75	63

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to ONUS! Traianus while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	332070	ONUS! Traianus	5.52	1.00	5.52	9.09	2.97	31
1	2011	115746	War of the Ring: Second Edition	6.71	0.82	8.14	8.52	4.19	16,255
2	2006	17392	Here I Stand	6.11	0.86	7.10	7.90	4.18	3,699
3	2019	276025	Maracaibo	6.04	0.78	7.78	8.17	3.89	11,683
4	2004	10630	Memoir '44	5.78	0.78	7.38	7.56	2.27	27,305
5	2010	62227	Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ?	5.66	0.81	6.97	7.59	3.63	4,599
6	1983	1608	Ambush!	5.56	0.85	6.56	7.48	3.25	2,264
7	2017	204516	878 Vikings: Invasions of England	5.25	0.78	6.74	7.53	2.61	2,936
8	1977	1035	Squad Leader	5.23	0.78	6.73	7.53	4.04	3,272
9	2019	249590	Nevsky: Teutons and Rus in Collision 1240-1242	5.14	0.84	6.10	8.26	3.90	537
10	2008	23418	Pursuit of Glory	5.10	0.85	6.01	7.92	3.91	510
11	1993	4102	Europa Universalis	5.07	0.89	5.68	6.84	4.86	344
12	1981	1032	B-17: Queen of the Skies	5.06	0.81	6.24	7.10	2.34	1,978
13	2019	209003	Commands & Colors: Medieval	5.06	0.84	5.99	8.28	2.53	418
14	2012	69136	Bloody April, 1917: Air War Over Arras, France	5.01	0.88	5.67	7.36	4.10	213
15	1986	6226	Eastern Front Tank Leader	4.99	0.88	5.65	6.86	2.94	217
16	2016	188825	Airfix Battles: The Introductory Wargame	4.93	0.88	5.57	7.36	3.00	98
17	1981	4300	The Barbarians: Games of the Fall of Rome and the Mongol Invasion of Europe	4.90	0.89	5.52	6.06	2.17	86
18	2012	124838	Maurice: War in an Age of Gentlemen and Philosophers – 1690-1790	4.90	0.88	5.56	8.29	2.69	48
19	2020	285193	Brief Border Wars	4.89	0.88	5.57	7.45	2.80	70
20	1977	2529	Flat Top	4.88	0.80	6.07	7.35	4.23	893
21	2020	257599	Invasions: Volume 1 – 350-650 AD	4.86	0.88	5.52	6.34	4.27	67
22	1983	254	Empires in Arms	4.86	0.77	6.30	7.62	4.41	1,271
23	1976	3083	Submarine	4.84	0.85	5.70	6.52	3.25	527
24	1981	4296	Battles & Leaders: A Game of Tactical Level Combat in the American Civil War 1861-1865	4.84	0.88	5.53	6.71	3.25	51
25	1987	1425	Raid on St. Nazaire	4.83	0.80	6.01	7.23	3.04	825

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	332070	ONUS! Traianus	Draco Ideas	Luis Álvaro Hernández	Paco Arenas	Ancient	Admin: Upcoming Releases	Action/Event
					Matias Cazorla	Wargame	Ancient: Rome	Campaign / Battle Card Driven
							History: Roman Empire	Command Cards
							Organizations: Board Games Association of Creators in Spain (LUDO)	Dice Rolling
							Series: ONUS! (Draco Ideas)	Events
								Line of Sight
								Movement Points
								Simulation
								Solo / Solitaire Game

Individual Game Analysis